The Competitive Dynamiques Journal

When I joined UMB Bank, in 2011, as a Senior Credit Analyst, re Commercial & Industrial Loans, Credit Analysts rotated every 3 month to write the Quarterly Economic Report for the Bank's Colorado Advisory Board. The Chairman of the Bank sat on this Board as he lived in Denver, CO. After I joined, the Bank found my reports well researched and that this responsibility was assigned to me permanently. I wrote the Colorado Advisory Board's Quarterly Economic Report for the 2 years I was at UMB Bank. See  https://quantumrisk.wordpress.com/  for sample reports. I will be writing a similar Quarterly Economic Report starting in January 2019. Look forward to it.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data between 1995 to 2015 shows that corporate failure rates have not reduced since 1995. That 80% of business eventually fail. Recall GM? I infer from this that the effectiveness of business management tools, has not improved since 1995, i.e. we need new approaches if we are to reduce this failure rate. My original 10-years of modeling work on loss risk with commercial and residential mortgages losses can be condensed into a single graph, The Risk Center Fold, below. It graphically summarizes all the statistical loss properties in one diagram. In general, loss probabilities, given a loss has occurred, take the shape of a distribution that is skewed to the right and is applicable to all forms of loss risks. From a cash flow perspective, the graph depicts an equivalent cash flow loss behavior given a negative cash flow outcome. That is, most of the time cash flow loss tends to be a small negative when a loss occurs, but sometimes th...