The Competitive Dynamiques Journal

The leading investors' site, Seeking Alpha, published my article, Is The Recession Here? https://seekingalpha.com/article/4230396-recession Enjoy

With the  news of Treasury yield curve inversions , I thought this  Dept of Treasury Daily Yield Curve  may interest you. Watch how this yield curve is inverted. Duration Recession Yield Inversion Advance Warning 2001 Recession 03/01-11/01 06/01-01/01 11 months 7 months 2 months Great Recession 12/07-06/09 08/16-05/17 18 months 10 months 3 months The possible lessons are: 1. That the yield curve inversion must last several months before it portends a recession, and when this yield curve recovers the recession starts within 3 months of this recovery. 2. Given a small sample size of 2 a post-1991 recession has a duration of at least 1.5 times the duration of the yield curve inversion, with an advance notice of 1/3 its (yield curve inversion) duration. Unfortunately, this means that if the yield curve inversion continues, there is a strong possibility we will have a re...

Capitalism in not a political theory. It is an economic belief that is often mistaken for a politicized ideology because it has two sides. An economic side and a political side. Its economic side is about capital formation, while its political side is about whom. The economic question, capital formation, in its broadest sense includes individual savings, without which banks cannot play their role of intermediation. This answers the political question for whom? For everyone.   For everyone, implies that our economy should be a win-win game where everyone benefits from growth and capital formation.   Not a zero-sum game where growth and capital formation benefit a select few at the expense of everyone else. The implicit assumption here is that everyone wants to get rich and are willing to put in the effort to do so. In either case, zero-sum or win-win, the select few always benefit. That is life. This is true of any political system whether capitalist, democratic, ...

I came across this on Facebook. 2 strangers playing the piano at a train station in France. It is marvelous. That is the difference between group activity and teamwork. Enjoy. Two Strangers Playing the Piano

When I joined UMB Bank, in 2011, as a Senior Credit Analyst, re Commercial & Industrial Loans, Credit Analysts rotated every 3 month to write the Quarterly Economic Report for the Bank's Colorado Advisory Board. The Chairman of the Bank sat on this Board as he lived in Denver, CO. After I joined, the Bank found my reports well researched and that this responsibility was assigned to me permanently. I wrote the Colorado Advisory Board's Quarterly Economic Report for the 2 years I was at UMB Bank. See  https://quantumrisk.wordpress.com/  for sample reports. I will be writing a similar Quarterly Economic Report starting in January 2019. Look forward to it.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data between 1995 to 2015 shows that corporate failure rates have not reduced since 1995. That 80% of business eventually fail. Recall GM? I infer from this that the effectiveness of business management tools, has not improved since 1995, i.e. we need new approaches if we are to reduce this failure rate. My original 10-years of modeling work on loss risk with commercial and residential mortgages losses can be condensed into a single graph, The Risk Center Fold, below. It graphically summarizes all the statistical loss properties in one diagram. In general, loss probabilities, given a loss has occurred, take the shape of a distribution that is skewed to the right and is applicable to all forms of loss risks. From a cash flow perspective, the graph depicts an equivalent cash flow loss behavior given a negative cash flow outcome. That is, most of the time cash flow loss tends to be a small negative when a loss occurs, but sometimes th...